Post by Mech on Dec 22, 2006 15:28:27 GMT -5
New flu pandemic could kill 81 million
By MARIA CHENG, AP Medical Writer Thu Dec 21, 7:02 PM ET
LONDON - A flu virus as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish flu could kill as many as 81 million worldwide if it struck today, a new study estimates. By applying historical death rates to modern population data, the researchers calculated a death toll of 51 million to 81 million, with a median estimate of 62 million.
That's surprisingly high, said lead researcher Chris Murray of Harvard University. He did the analysis, in part, because he thought prior claims of 50 million deaths were wildly inflated.
"We expected to end up with a number between 15 and 20 million," Murray said. "It turns out we were wrong."
By MARIA CHENG, AP Medical Writer Thu Dec 21, 7:02 PM ET
LONDON - A flu virus as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish flu could kill as many as 81 million worldwide if it struck today, a new study estimates. By applying historical death rates to modern population data, the researchers calculated a death toll of 51 million to 81 million, with a median estimate of 62 million.
That's surprisingly high, said lead researcher Chris Murray of Harvard University. He did the analysis, in part, because he thought prior claims of 50 million deaths were wildly inflated.
"We expected to end up with a number between 15 and 20 million," Murray said. "It turns out we were wrong."